More than anything else, the difference is design.

Good design provides benefits at all stages of the development process. It is easy to see how a well designed, well built project that fits into its neighborhood will be good for its occupants, its community and its development team. If the end product is good, everyone wins.

Paying 10% more than a property is “worth” is back in high fashion, and this mentality was exemplified with the recent sale on Portland Street in the thriving King West area.

What a property is “worth” is anybody’s guess, but what if a comparable sale was staring you right in the face?

I consider a “buyer’s premium” to be anything paid above what the property should reasonably sell for.

If a property is under-priced by the seller and the seller’s agent and comes onto the market at $199,900 when it “should” sell for $225,000, then a $232,000 sale price would indicate a $7,000 “buyer’s premium.”

I also call this an emotional premium.

It’s hard to pin-point a value of any house or condo in the city, but we can sure come close!

So what do we make of a condo that is “worth” $340,000 selling for $385,000?

It’s pure insanity, in my opinion.

Before you judge, let me give you the backstory…

I detailed my experiences with this unit as part of another post last week, so forgive my redundancy.

Portland Street is located in “FreedVille” where Freed Developments has built half the area and has many more projects scheduled for construction in the not-too-distant future.

It is also in the heart of the thriving King West area between Spadina and Bathurst where all the chic restaurants and bars are located for the 24 – 30 year old crowds to pounce.

Brant House, West, Conviction, Brassai, Bier Market, The Spoke Club, Cheval, and even Blowfish if you feel like walking more than three minutes; are all at your doorstep.

I knew there would be action on this very dressed-up 1-bedroom unit in a 2-year-old building on Portland Street, but never did I think I’d see the complete insanity that plagued our market in 2007.

I mentioned last week how I stood outside the building with my clients one night waiting for another Realtor to come back with the key all while other groups of buyers showed up with their agents in tow.

We ended up seeing the unit with another group, and 2-3 more groups passed us by from the front door, to the elevator, to the lobby.

It was a complete mad-house, and the subsequent insanity should have come as no surprise.

But I’m naive, I suppose, and maybe a bit old fashioned.

I don’t get drawn in my the glitz and glamour of being able to pre-drink at my Portland Street condo before stumbling a block to Brant House with my buddies while my daddy’s Visa burns a hole in my pocket.

And when I see numbers and values staring me right in the face, I use them to make a rational, informed decision.

This unit on Portland Street was listed at $325,000 and immediately became the buzz of the industry.  All my colleagues had shown it; some of them to 2-3 different clients, and every young buyer in the city was sent this listing by their Realtors.

The unit was perhaps a touch over 600 square feet, but it was meticulously staged right down to the color and organization of the bowl of jelly-belly on the counter.

It was a fantastic unit, but my buyers didn’t like the fact that the second-storey balcony overlooked the alley-way below.  With the City of Toronto not picking up garbage and the hot summer heat, it was a pass for my clients.

We did our homework in advance, however, and found that the exact same model unit had sold for $345,000 only a month prior.  This unit was on a higher floor and was facing south, meaning it didn’t look at a garbage-alley from ten feet above.

We determined that since the two units were the same inside, but not the same outside, perhaps the unit currently listed for sale was worth a hair less than the $345,000 asking price.  I told my clients $338,000 but added that there may be a buyer willing to go right up to $345,000 just to ensure he or she gets the place.

My clients are both savvy people and said, “Why would we pay the same $345,000 price for this unit when the other one was substantially better?”

I told them “you wouldn’t, but somebody else might, and probably will.”

Emotion plays a huge part of the purchase process, but none of us were ready for the final selling price.

I ask YOU, the reader, to come up with an idea right now of the “insane” price you think I’m speaking of.

Do the math yourselves – the unit is “worth” slightly less than the exact same model that sold for $345,000 a month earlier because it happens to be on the second floor over looking an alley way behind a row of King Street restaurants.

The unit is “worth” $340,000, but somebody paid more, didn’t they?

Am I talking about $350,000?

How about $360,000?

Wouldn’t that be a gas?  Somebody paying $20,000 more than all rational thought would indicate they should?

Try again.

How about $370,000 then?

No.

This unit sold for a whopping $385,000.

If you’re the guy that just paid $345,000 for the same model one month ago, congratulations – your condo just went up in value to the tune of forty-large.

But if you’re the moron that just paid a $45,000 emotional premium for this condo, please tell me WHY!

This is one circumstance where the old adage, “It’s worth what somebody is willing to pay for it” is completely false.

It’s not worth $385,000, now way, no how.

It simply can’t be worth $385,000 when the same unit just sold for $345,000!

If you are this buyer’s agent – you should be ashamed!  But you won’t be, because you’re an a**hole who sold out his clients for a $9,625 commission…

This buyer got carried away, and simply said, “Screw it,” while throwing all caution to the wind.  Perhaps the buyer had been looking for six months and finally found the “perfect” place to call home, but the price he paid should haunt him for quite some time.

One of the first things I tell my new clients is, “If you have a mental stumbling block about being in competition, you need to get over it right now.”  Because for ever Dick or Jane looking at 1 Shaw Street, 1029 King Street, or 66 Portland Street, there is a Tom, Dick, or Harry looking at the same property with the same gleam in their eyes.

But when absolute INSANITY kicks in, I tell my buyers to walk away.

The price paid for this unit on Portland Street makes me sick to my stomach, and it has nothing to do with those awful ribs left over from Sunday night that I just microwaved and downed with a large glass of milk…

It has to do with the ridiculous price that somebody paid while tearing up the comparable sales and saying, “I’ll pay anything to get this place.”

That’s when you know the market is out of control.

I can’t predict the market – I can only comment on the current conditions.

But if this sort of thing starts to happen with increasing frequency, I’ll be very, very worried as we move ahead…

http://torontorealtyblog.com/2009/07/17/pure-insanity/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander,   CFC  Canadian Funding Corp CEO

‘Evaluating performance – or lack thereof – for commercial properties will continue to occupy a significant portion of lender effort as the decade wears on. Distinguishing among the hopeless dogs, the chronic underachievers, and the potential comeback kids will require the careful scrutiny and judgment of the property on a case-by-case basis, and nowhere will this judgment be more critical than the area of hotel loans. Fortunately, for both the diligent borrower and lender who find themselves in a down market, a workout can be a win / win relationship…’

Lenders have three choices when faced with a non-performing loan:

• Loan restructuring – the workout solution.

• Negotiate a ‘deed in lieu’ of foreclosure or other method of transferring title, or

• Instigate title contest through local courts or, potentially, the federal bankruptcy court.

‘If the lender believes that the borrower in place can optimize cash flow to the lender, he will be far more motivated to restructure the debt. On the other hand, if the lender perceives operational or managerial weaknesses on the part of the borrower, he will be induced to push for control of the asset…

…The weaker the lender’s position relative to collateral and the weaker the asset itself, the more costly will be the process of taking possession versus restructuring the debt.’

http://www.htrends.com/article39979.html

r e v i e w e d  b y  Moishe Alexander, CFC  Canadian Funding Corp CEO

Working Ventures, sponsored by the Canadian Federation of Labor, is the first national, labor-sponsored investment fund in the world. Its goal is long-term capital appreciation for shareholders, providing risk capital (between $250,000 and $10 million) to high-growth and medium-sized Canadian businesses. All Canadians who invest in Working Fund receive tax credits.

Therefore, in Canada, alternative funding is easier to obtain. From customers and suppliers to corporate lenders and government programs, customer financing has minimal paperwork.

Human Resources Development Canada offers self-employment assistance to employment insurance recipients who want to start their own businesses. There are even Community Loan Associations in each province.

Canadian Alternative Investment Co-operative in Toronto, Ontario, was formed in the early 1980’s by a number of religious communities pooling resources to make investments towards positive social change. CAIC offers loans, mortgages, and equity investments for community-based projects.

BRIDGE LOANS

Bridge loans are loans that are generally very short term, easier to acquire and with quick approval times. Their main advantage is speed and the ability to quickly close, save property from foreclosure or other situations which generally come on short notice and require fast money. Bridge loans are extremely convenient and useful when you absolutely can’t wait for a standard loan. Other names for bridge loans include “interim financing,” “gap financing,” and “swing loans.”

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”

—Paul Getty

As the terms “interim financing” and “gap financing” imply, bridge loans are also used to fill in the gaps during cash-flow shortages or to finance businesses or business operations in the interim between larger loans. They also come in handy between business startup financing and more permanent financing. Bridge loans are often used on short notice for real estate purposes. The range can stretch from two weeks to three years, and the amount of the loan and interest rates are only really limited by the customer’s credit. However, the amount of the loan generally won’t be as high as long-term loans would be, and interest rates generally run several percentage points higher.

Ilya Bodner
Small Business Owner

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ilya-bodner/true-business-credit-card/canadian-alternative-financing

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC Canadian Funding Corp CEO

Your answer to these questions may depend on whether you own or are buying a newly-constructed home versus living in or purchasing an existing, decades-old property.

Conventional water heaters heat litres of stored water which is kept hot 24/7, even when there is no demand. Tankless units are heaters which heat water on demand, then stop.

First of all, don’t get sanctimonious if your tankless water heater was part of the features of the new home you bought or had built. Starting from scratch and incorporating energy-efficient, environmentally-friendly systems during construction is always easier, and usually less expensive, than retrofitting, or adding a modern system to an older home.

The benefits and cost-considerations of tankless water heaters in new homes can make this installation a feasible if not a preferred alternative to conventional tank-style heaters. New home construction standards are normally higher than those that existed for homes built in the last century or earlier. New plumbing, electrical, sound-proofing and other systems favour optimum installation and operation of tankless water heaters and other modern technologies.

If you own or want to buy an existing property, your commitment to reducing “your footprint” and saving energy may not be enough to make tankless water heaters the right way to achieve your environmental and financial goals. You can still have an energy-efficient, green home with a conventional water heater, but you’ll just have to go about it differently.

One of the most important lessons to learn about the current rush toward “green” is that there are just as many inappropriate applications of good ideas and over-sold environmental or energy-efficient solutions as there are “right fits.”

Don Fugler, Senior Researcher in Policy and Research at Canada’s national housing agency, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), is currently managing CMHC’s initial tankless field project designed to determine the actual savings gained when converting from a well-functioning conventional water heater to a tankless unit.

“Basically, what we hear is that tankless water heaters do save energy in a lot of cases, but what is not necessarily established so far, is what people should expect,” said Fugler. “It is probably different from the theoretical savings–that you just calculate based on efficiencies. What house usage is unlikely to get significant savings? The fact [is] that water heater usage or homeowner draws on hot water are a lot different in reality than they are modelled in standards. This makes a difference because the way they are modelled in standards actually benefits tankless water heaters. I don’t think they set it up this way, it just does.”

Tankless water heaters are not a new idea, just relatively new to Canadians. In retrofit situations, they may not always be practical, cost-effective or feasible. Fugler offered a few issues to consider in evaluating whether tankless is right for you:

• Net result may not be a gain “Part of the problem, or part of the solution, is tank heaters lose their heat to the house….So even though a conventional water heater does lose heat, it is seen to be heating your house and that is an asset for two thirds of the year…. In Canada, which is more a heating than a cooling climate, tankless is only going to have a third of the advantage that it may have in a cooling climate.” Fugler explains that expected savings from converting to tankless may not materialize because, while fuel consumption by the water heater may go down, fuel consumption to replace heat to the house may increase. This has been found for shifts to high-efficiency furnace fans and CFL light bulbs.
• Billing disappointment The quoted percent of savings should be applied to the portin of the gas or electric bill represented by the water heater. With all the charges piled confusingly on a gas bill, an absolute savings may not be visible. If you expect to save significant amounts, you may be disappointed.
• Pay back clarity For the two reasons above, the quoted pay back time may be hard to calculate or much longer than stated. Sales representations would normally include best case scenarios. Where hot water bills are high, savings could be more noticeable. With low or conservationist usage, the savings may be small and the pay back much longer.
• Hot water delivery How long does it take hot water to arrive at the tap? Since home designs usually locate heaters in an otherwise unused corner of the basement, second-floor and higher bathrooms may be a long way off. Having to run water as long as 5 minutes to get the hot may result in wasted water. Low-flow shower heads increase delivery time. Anti-scald valves like those required in new homes may also interfere with hot water availability. Recirculation pumps may help this problem, but that’s another cost to consider.
• Heating differential Municipal water may be very cold, requiring considerable fuel to heat it to the desired temperature. Drain water heat recovery installations recycle hot wastewater to heat up incoming cold water to warm by spiralling the wastewater piping around the intake pipe. However, this approach is only practical for those who regularly take long hot showers, not baths.
• Flow limits and use patterns Tankless heaters have minimum flow limits, so they don’t heat water for small draws like rinsing your hands. Some users turn on a second tap to reach the flow threshold for hot water at the tap where they want low flow hot water. It is this type of water-waste pattern and other use changes that are of interest to Fugler in the current research project. To achieve maximum desired flow, particularly to have two or more simultaneous uses with lots of hot water, intake pipes may need to be increased to 3/4 inch from the conventional inch. In large, high-usage homes, more than one unit may be advisable.
• Adequate fuel supply Gas supply input may need increasing to 3/4 inch pipe to achieve desired hot water flow. A comparable cost may be required to upgrade to a larger service panel for an electric tankless unit.
• Venting and noise The exhaust gases and moisture from gas tankless water heaters are vented outside, not into a chimney, in a manner dictated by bylaws and codes. Proximity to neighbours may cause complaints about noise and condensation, or it may make the installation impossible. Decks and patios may also restrict venting choices. More expensive and higher efficiency condensing units may offer more venting flexibility, but installation costs may increase. If venting is not possible, an electric unit may be the only tankless alternative.

Tankless water heaters are expensive to purchase and installation in Canada. Fugler predicts that these and other issues will be resolved through technological advances and government regulation. Tankless water heaters will become the new normal in the decades ahead.

For now, invest in knowledge in advance of a purchase, or regret in hindsight…your choice. Don’t rely on salespeople or installers to make decisions for you. Buyer beware is the law. Buyer be aware is the solution.

http://www.homes101.net/news/n4655

brought by Moishe Alexander, CFC  Canadian Funding Corp CEO

NOTICE TO VISITORS
A fire in the Toronto data centre hosting our servers knocked out network connectivity and disabled this site, from 2:25 am to 9:15 am EDT Sunday morning. If your comment was lost, please repost. My apologies. — Garth

GF special? Listed: $799K. Sold: $825K. Lot 25 x 122.

Historians may rue that, in the early 21st Century, as the planet reeled under three times its sustainable population, the climate tipped towards the irreversible, a fossil fuel-driven economy ran out of reserves and a billion faced hunger as foodstocks were diverted to run cars, young couples would sacrifice all for a mortgage.

That is, I guess, if there’ll be historians.

Anyway, here’s an interesting juxtaposition for you between the young who have wants, and no resources, and the mature who have funds, and smarts:

From this week’s Georgia Straight (which used to tell it straight):

For a week after they signed the papers on their Douglas Park townhome, John Morettie and Jessica Wilson felt nauseated with anxiety. Like about 40 percent of first-time home buyers, according to Statistics Canada, the couple waited until their 30s to dive in. On the one hand, they now have enough money flowing in to afford a Vancouver-sized mortgage. On the other, they need more space than a typical box-in-the-sky condo provides, due to a work-at-home situation and the imminent possibility of kids. So thanks to a once-in-a-lifetime low interest rate, they snagged a home.

The facts: John and Jessica lived in an apartment for which they paid $1,800 in rent. When mortgage rates temporarily dipped to 2.75%, they figured they could afford to ‘buy’ – which actually meant they could afford to rent a steaming pile debt.

“But we don’t have a lot of [wiggle] room,” he said. “We can go up to four percent, but then we’re done.” Oh crap.

Actually, it appears the two moist children borrowed $600,000, with monthly payments of $2,221. Plus property taxes, house insurance, mortgage insurance, amortized closing costs and maintenance, they will likely see a monthly carrying cost of at least $3,000, or 65% more than they paid to rent a home. The best part: they’d been offered $850,000 in financing.

But not to wory. The executive director of the Mortgage Brokers Association of B.C. (Tamera Olsen) said, “I don’t think anyone wants to see what happened in 1981. The lenders are aware; they don’t want to see anyone lose their homes.…What I’m hearing is that any increase in rates will be gradual. Very gradual.”

Maybe someone should tell Tamera that lenders do not set mortgage rates. But perhaps that’s a little technical for her. And where did she ‘hear’ what interest rates will do? Ben Bernanke on Twitter?

Meanwhile John and Jessica might want to know payments on the $600,000 mega-loan, amortized over 35 years (meaning virtually no equity is being built up) can double to more than $4,200 if rates return to 8% – which is still a tad below the historic norm for the last two decades. It’s also twice the point at which they’d be financially screwed.

Now, this:

Mr. Turner: I have read your Real Estate book and followed your financial advice for several years.

My question is simple… I am 45 years old with about one million dollars in cash.  I have been waiting for the real estate market to collapse but each time it starts heading south the Government steps in to change the rules…whether it be extending the legal duration of a mortgage, or reducing the amount required for a downpayment, or most recently slashing interest rates and thereby making mortgages cheaper.

So it would seem that now we have just about EVERYONE who has thought of getting into the market in…speculators, 1st time home buys…everyone.  and many of these people are the greater fools because the prices have not retracted much compared with other countries around the world.

My question is this…does our government make their policies to protect the dumbest Canadians out there?  Is there a chance that real estate will ever be allowed to fall?  Will the government resist raising interest rates to keep inflation in check now because it would cause havoc in the real estate market (prices dropping, foreclosures everywhere)?

What would you suggest I do?  I don’t want to rent for the rest of my life. — Dave

Well, Davey the millionaire, you did not get all that money by being naïve. So, you know the answers: Absolutely, the government will do everything in its power to distort the marketplace, tilt the playing field in favour of the John & Jessicas of this world, encourage a rapid plunge into debt and aggressively discourage people like you from saving money.

Since our economy is essentially unsustainable, it can only maintain the semblance of status quo through growth. That growth gives ever-larger tax revenues, allowing the government to augment, and citizens and corporations to maintain debt payments with marginally increased incomes. When growth falls to zero or (as today) into slightly negative numbers, it is called a ‘recession.’ If it drops to 90% of former growth levels, it is called a ‘depression.’

Governments in Canada, the US, Europe and most of the rest of the world are currently doing everything they can to encourage borrowing and spending, in order to create demand and growth. The techniques include dropping interest rates to almost zero, deficit spending, printing new money, massive bailout loans to corporations, tax cuts to individuals, grants to new homebuyers and the propping up of unstable and failing companies and sectors in order to maintain jobs which will not last.

But, Dave, you know this. You have no debts, and a million dollars. You are a deity.

Wait.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/07/04/juxta/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander,  CFC Canadian Funding Corp CEO ]]> http://canadian-funding-corporation-design.com/2009/07/09/juxta/feed/ 0 http://canadian-funding-corporation-design.com/2009/07/08/june-home-sales-soar-27-per-cent/ http://canadian-funding-corporation-design.com/2009/07/08/june-home-sales-soar-27-per-cent/#comments Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:34:45 +0000 admin http://canadian-funding-corporation-design.com/?p=295 Multiple offers. Frenzied buyers. Higher prices.

In the middle of a recession, Toronto real estate has gone from a buyer’s market to what looks like a seller’s market. But can it last?

Some analysts say the spring fling will be exactly that – a quick bump up in numbers with a much more sombre fall to come.

“You had pent-up demand from the winter where nobody bought anything, and then these really low interest rates that brought everyone back into the market,” said Shaun Hildebrand, senior market analyst for Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported that 10,955 existing homes were sold in June – up 27 per cent from June of last year. The average home price was $403,972, up 2 per cent from 12 months earlier.

Analysts such as Hildebrand say the rebound appears remarkable, but don’t expect it to last. At least not until job numbers pick up substantially.

“I don’t think the housing market is on a solid enough footing to register the kind of growth we’ve been seeing going forward,” said Hildebrand. While the market is much more resilient than many analysts previously thought, it still isn’t firing on all cylinders and won’t be for some time, he cautioned.

“Shifting mortgage rates and a great unfreezing of confidence have resulted in a very strong wave of home buying in the GTA,” housing analyst Will Dunning said in a report. “But what really matters over longer periods is job creation, and the signals from the market are discouraging.”

The jobless rate in Ontario is forecast to climb sharply to 9.3 per cent this year, according to the Royal Bank of Canada. Last year it was 6.5 per cent.

Much of the weakness in jobs growth is focused on the manufacturing sector, and Ontario is particularly vulnerable, Dunning said.

“I expect the short-term impacts of changing rates and postponed buying will soon pass and the GTA housing market will be weaker in the second half of the year,” he said.

One reason for the uptick in real estate is that remedies to fight the recession, such as low interest rates, have helped turn around the market.

Another reason is that active listings are down by 30 per cent from last year, meaning there are fewer properties to choose from. That causes prices to rise.

“The main reason to list is so you can buy something else,” Dunning said.

“Listings remain weak, which is another reason I think that this wave of buying won’t last much longer.”

Nevertheless, real estate agents such as Royal LePage’s Helena O’Connor did not expect to see multiple offers – where competing buyers bid up the price of a home – in the middle of a recession.

“It was a little surprising,” O’Connor said. “Buyers are really responding to the low mortgage rates.”

Sutton Group realtor Alicia Pang, who quit a comfortable job in banking to become a full-time realtor last year, had some doubts about her career choice over the winter. But she is very busy now.

“I got my licence just when there was a slowdown, so my timing could have been better,” Pang said. “But it worked out okay. I knew things would improve in the spring, but I never imagined the market would be this crazy.”

Pang said about 80 per cent of her clients are first-time buyers driven by record-low mortgage rates.

A one-year closed mortgage can be had for as little as 2.75 per cent, while a five-year closed rate can be found at 4.39 per cent, according to website Canadamortage.com.

“Because the listings are down, it’s hard out there for buyers,” Pang said.

“For choice properties, if you’re not out there on the first day, they’re gone.”

Toronto Star

http://yorkregionmortgages.blogspot.com/2009/07/june-home-sales-soar-27-per-cent.html

brought by Moishe Alexander , Canadian Funding Corp CEO

A recent reader saw the article and wrote to me over the weekend:

Thank-you for the article. It made for an interesting read. My area of interest is the “after Olympic” effects on house prices of host cities. Is there a pronounced “hangover” effect on house prices due to the debt level most, if not all, host cities are left to grapple with? Do most international investors simply cash-out and move on to the next host city in search of high %, short term gains in the run-up to the next games? If you have any numbers on Sydney, Athens, Barca, Atlanta (China is a bit tough to gauge given its political influences) on for example: house prices 12-24 months after the closing ceremonies, I would be very interested to see them.  Thank-you.

Being a lifelong Chicagoan, and 20 year veteran of the Real Estate industry, I can comment from experience on a whole bunch of stuff.  But I have not lived through an economic cycle driven by the boom and bust of hosting the Olympics.  So I will try to do my best for you.

Here is a consensus of opinions:

From The Daily Reckoning:

Smaller, underdeveloped cities like Athens and Barcelona have seen huge property gains triggered by the Olympics. But in developed host cities, such as Sydney and Atlanta, the effect on property prices has been virtually nil. Sydney house prices increased by 50% between 1996 and 2000 – but research has shown that this was due to general market influences, rather than the games.

A report from Jones, Lang, Lasalle entitled ‘Reaching Beyond the Gold: The Impact of the Olympic Games on Real Estate Markets’ examines the impact of staging the Olympics on recent host cities and looks ahead to 2012.  An important effect of staging the games, argues the paper, is the improvement of urban infrastructure in developing cities. This can have a major impact on property values – for instance, Athens is building a new airport to the east of the city which has sent land and property prices in the Messogia area soaring.

It seems that in major cities, the effect on real estate prices is not dramatic.  But in smaller host cities, the effect is dramatic.

The writer of the article also notes that the money spent on infrastructure improves quality of life, and adds value to the community that lives long after the departure of the Olympics.  Here in Chicago, we can anticipate HUGE improvements to our ancient CTA TRAIN system, new roads, new buses, and the establishment of an entirely new neighborhood south of McCormick Place.

From my Colleague at @properties, Brian Guzman:

The regeneration effects from hosting an Olympic games has generally had a positive impact on house prices. Barcelona was the best performing host city with prices rising by 131% versus an 83% increase in Spanish house prices in the five years leading up to the 1992 Olympics.

Hosting an Olympics is usually associated not only with an increase in sporting facilities but also an upgrade of transport and cultural/leisure facilities. Barcelona, Athens and Sydney all saw a significant upgrading of their urban infrastructure and this city rejuvenation is likely to encourage higher house prices.

Areas close to the Olympic complex usually see the largest increase in house prices as they benefit from improved facilities and better transport links. This was clearly evident in the main area of development for the Sydney Olympics, Homebush Bay, a former industrial site 20 minutes from the centre of Sydney. House prices in the adjacent suburb, Homebush, rose 70% in the five years in the run-up to the Olympics, compared to a 50% increase in Sydney house prices.

The Manchester Commonwealth Games prompted redevelopment and rejuvenation of central Manchester and provided a spur to house prices in the area. In the five years leading up to the 2002 Commonwealth Games, house prices in central Manchester rose by 102% versus a 52% rise in prices in the North West and an 83% increase in prices across the UK.

Again, real estate prices near the Olympic Host City outperform prices in other cities.  And the improvements to infrastructure add long-term value to the city.

Both articles above reference a detailed study by Phillips, Hager and North, Investment Management LTD., in Vancouver, Canada.  The detailed study can be found here.

Conclusion: Sorry, No Lasting Olympic Effect

The hosting of the Olympic Games may have some impact on residential real estate prices, but our analysis of four North American experiences suggests that the impact, if any, is likely to be experienced over a fairly long time frame during the lead up to the Games and does not persist after the Games are done and gone. The impact may depend on the size of the local property market – presumably the smaller the market, the more noticeable the impact – but, neither Calgary (population 657,000 in 1988) nor Salt Lake City (population 182,000 in 2002) experienced a material Olympic effect.

Oh yeah?  Just when you thought you were right, check out the conclusions from this study by Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management.

History clearly demonstrates that the 2008 Olympic host city will enjoy significant long-term benefits,” said Melinda McKay, Senior Vice President, Jones Lang LaSalle, and co-author of the study. “While the Games generate short-term economic gains, such as more jobs and increased revenue, other indirect effects — such as changes in the host city’s urban form and governance — are farther reaching and longer lasting.

And a deeper discussion into these important factors:

• • Urbran Regeneration
  • Olympic Villages
  • Infrastructure Improvements
  • Greening of the Games
  • Tourism Promotion and the Convention Sector

And a great conclusion:

The degree to which cities are able to achieve this will depend on a number of factors. These include:

• Competitiveness of the business environment affects the ability to attract corporate occupiers
• Quality of the tourism attractions determines the degree of long-term tourism benefits
• Ability to sell Olympic experience to attract other major world events extends to the re-use of facilities and the leveraging of organizational experience
• Level of tourism infrastructure built for the Olympics — has major long-term implications
• Presence of an ongoing promotional campaign is critical in translating the short-term interest into long-term benefits

To delve deeper into your question, here are a couple of my opinions.

None of the articles indicated a massive influx of foreign investment, or investors flocking to the host city and buying up property to cash in on an anticipated run-up of real estate prices.

Here in Chicago, it is already apparent that only the most politically connected are going to really rake in the tall cash on the Olympics.  The City of Chicago has already gone under contract to purchase the site of the old Michael Reese Hospital, is working on contracts with politically connected trucking firms to haul away the demolished buildings, and hire politically connected developers to construct the new Olympic Village.  (Article at the Chicago Reader here and Chicago Tribune’s political coverage here.)

The real money to be made on the Olympics here in Chicago will be from the big projects to improve infrastructure.  Followers of Chicago politics can already fill in the names of the connected companies that are going to be awarded contract for:

• Trucking
• Concrete
• Roadbuilding
• Construction
• Demolition
• CTA Improvement
• Asphalt
• Garbage Hauling

For the slimmer margins in the run-up of real estate prices, a 20% to 30% possible increase in property values over normal property appreciation does not seem to be a worthwhile pursuit for aggressive investors, so I cannot imagine a speculative boom in that regard.

Last year’s slide in prices, current low interest rates contribute to uptick in sales

Lower Mainland real estate markets saw big gains in June sales with the Metro Vancouver real estate board posting its second busiest and the Fraser Valley its fourth most active June on record.It was a factor of the slide in real estate prices last year and current low interest rates that were enough to offset the negative influences of higher unemployment and a contracting economy, regional economist Carol Frketich of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in an interview.

The Metro Vancouver area covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver recorded 4,259 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in June, a 76-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago.

Read the whole article here…

The big question is “can the market be sustained?”

Based on past few years sales activities, sales volume diminished after spring, and bottomed out in January the following year. If the second half 2009 follows preceding years, sales may dropped the next few months. Home prices are likely to maintained at present level due to lack of sufficient new listings to replenish homes that were sold.

The months of inventory for the Richmond market as reported for May 2009 at around 3.68 months favoured home sellers. The strong June sale as reported above further confirmed pricing pressure moving home prices higher.Until we see the months of inventory return to 6 months or more, home prices can be sustained or may move higher if buying interest remains strong.

It will be interesting to see how the real estate market will fare the next few months. If there is no substantive recovery in the economy, the prospect for recovery in the housing market is questionable.

http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=480

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

At the present, governments around the globe are printing money as if there were no tomorrow in order to try and prevent debt-laden banks from going under and trying to stimulate the fractional reserve banking system. The past 20 years of economic growth has been based on a “Pay it Forward” basis…someone gets a new couch or car and ends up paying for it over a defined period of time. The expansion of credit in turn allowed for false consumption because most people never really had the money in hand.

In the past, whenever any purchases were made, most people either saved up until they had money in hand or used “Lay Away” programs for purchase (an individual would make biweekly payments until an item was paid for in full and then taken home). As the global economy continues to shrink and get worse, the first knee-jerk reaction is to start saving, which is evident in the US as reached 6.9% year over year. When prices decline, it makes sense to save money as it does not make any sense to buy things when there is economic uncertainty.

During periods of economic contractions, the absolutely worst sectors to be in are retail or any consumer-related businesses that people do not absolutely require, such as getting manicures and pedicures, furniture, cars, etc. Areas that tend to maintain somewhat of a stable environment are Pharmaceutical (especially those that provide life-saving drugs), food and energy sectors. One of the hardest sectors that will get hit in Canada in the coming years will be the government sector. There is so much money being pumped into government up here at present that it is serving as an artificial inflator of the economy.

When the S&P eventually bottoms in late 2009/early 2010, the economic bottom should follow history and be in place 12-18 months afterwards. This suggests that mid to late 2011 should mark the bottom of the global economic recession from a bottom in residential real estate…note: commercial real estate has recently succumbed to the global recession, so it is likely the consumer will bottom before businesses do. In other words, the bottom of the economy could be flat for a subsequent 1-2 years until consumers retrench from their bunkers and again begin spending.

Analysis today will focus on the 10 Year US Treasury Index and how it should behave over the course of the next 6-12 months.

The Rest…MarketOracleUk

http://revolutionradio.org/2009/07/02/in-the-future-interest-rates-will-soar-and-consumers-will-be-sore-also/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO